🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."